Ballot Chase!

Washington State is a vote-by-mail state and voters have about 3 weeks before the election to mail in their ballots.  Voter-Science tracks the ballots that are received and provides several tools to aide in your Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts.

1) The GOTV Reports

Voter-Science provides GOTV reports – see the Turnout Report  plugin. Note – your account must be enabled for Ballot chase in order for this to plugin to work.

This report includes useful information like:

  • voter turnout statistics
  • breakdowns by party and targets
  • breakdown by result of canvassing
  • identified supporters that haven’t yet voted
  • pre-precinct breakdowns
  • and even heat maps of turnout:

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2) Names are crossed off in the List View

For example, in the screen shot below, Nancy and Marvin have already voted and so their names have been automatically crossed off.

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This is critical for get-out-the-vote: if somebody has already cast their ballot, no need to contact them further for gotv.

3) Mobile app tells you the ballot received

The mobile apps will tell you the ballot is received

4) Usage with Filters  

Ballots are tracked by creating a new “XVoted” column in your sheet.  It’s a ‘1’ if the ballot has been received. You can also use the Filter tool to filter on XVoted just like any other column and use that to create custom heat maps (Supporters that haven’t voted) or specific child sheets.

For map users, a common “Targeted voters” filter is “IsFalse(XVoted) && IsTrue(XTargetPri)”.   This means “only include people whose ballot is not yet received and who are on the targeted list”. 

 

Technical details

There is some delay between when a person puts their ballot into the mail, it’s received by the county auditor, and the auditor reports having received it. This is tracked per-county, and counties report at different speeds.  This means that if you see a name crossed off, you can be confident the ballot was received.

Can you win with 49%?

If voters are 50% likely to vote for you, you obviously have a 50% of winning the election. But what are your odds of winning if voters are only 49.9% likely to vote for you?

Let’s do the math …

The Model and Assumptions
For simplicity, assume that all voters have the same percent P of voting for you. In practice, this more resembles just the “swing” voters, and you will have different categories of voters such as your “base” that is very likely to vote for you and your opponent’s “base” that will never vote for you. But this simplification is still sufficient to illustrate the concepts.
So if P = 50%, obviously you have a 50% chance of winning the election.

But what if P drops to 49.5%?  Perhaps there’s a natural bias against you due to party, etc.  Certainly, your odds of pulling an upset and winning are still greater than 0. But it’s not still 49.5% either. So what are the odds?

Doing the math
We’ll  compute these numbers using a Monte Carlo simulation.  Source code is available at: https://github.com/MikeStall/BasicMonteCarlo
Say the district size is N. If N=5000 people, dropping P from 50% to 49.5% support means your chances of winning the election would drop from 50% to about 23%!  And when P drops to 49%, odds of victory are 7%.

Here’s a chart showing the full curve.  The horizontal axis is P (the % that an individual voter will vote for you).  The vertical axis is the % that you’ll win the overall election (assuming population size 5000.)

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Note that this is not linear! Your chances of winning are not just P*N.

How does this depend on population size?
It turns out due to the Law of Large numbers, this curve gets even sharper as the population size (N) increases.  The law of large numbers means that the larger your sample size, the lower a chance of anomalies occurring. It’s easy to flip 2 heads in a row (25% odds). It’s less likely to flip 10 heads in a row. (.1% chance).   In this case, winning an election when P < 50% is “anomaly”.
Say voters are 49.9% likely to vote for you. Your odds of winning drop off rapidly as the population increases.

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Summary
1. If voters are only 49.9% likely to vote for you, you still have a chance of winning the election. But it’s a steep dropoff (the blue chart).
2. The chances drop rapidly with population size (the red chart)
3. A 49% – 51% election result is actually a solid loss if the population is large.

Voter Database Decay Rate

How much should you pay to keep your data up to date? How much does it cost you to use stale date?

Let’s look at a real example using the voter database (VRDB) provided by the secretary of state. This tells you the voters in your district and a campaign uses this to know who to contact for voter outreach. This perhaps the most critical piece of data for any campaign.

Suppose it costs you $1 to mail a postcard to a voter. If 1000 voters have moved out of your district and can no longer vote for you, you’d arguably be wasting $1000 to continue sending them postcards asking for their vote.

So not updating your copy of the voter-database costs you money in wasted resources. But ingressing a new copy of the voter-database costs you something too. So where’s the sweet spot? How frequently do you need to refresh your copy of the voter database?

Don’t guess! Let’s measure it …

1. Establish a “difference function”
We must establish a difference function to compare to tables (or CSV files).  This is somewhat arbitrary, but we’ll count the “decay” as the number of deltas to convert the first file into the second. The difference function should be symmetric.

We’ll count the following as differences:
– if a voter is in one file but not the other. This may mean a voter has moved into the district or left the district.
– If a voter has changed (such as a different last name or different precinct number). This may mean the voter has moved within the district or changed their name.

If the two files have N1 and N2 rows respectively, then the maximum number of differences would be (N1+N2).

For this study, we use an implementation from https://github.com/TechRoanoke/CsvCount/blob/master/CsvCount/CsvDiff.cs

2. Get the data
Here, we’ll look at VRDBs from Oct’12 through Feb’16.  Voter Databases can be obtained from the Secretary of State at http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/vrdb/

3. Apply

Here’s the result of applying the difference function. We start with Oct’12 and use that as a baseline, and comparing each VRDB back it.

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4. Observation and Analysis
Within 1.5 years, there were over a million differences. If it costs $1 a contact, that could be potentially wasting $1 million in a statewide campaign by operating with stale data with a VRDB that’s even 2 years out of date.

We’d expect the decay to slow down and not be linear. Once a person moves, subsequent moves don’t count as additional differences. For example, say person X starts in precinct p1 in Jan’14, moves to precinct p2 in June ’14, and then moves to precinct p3 in Dec ’14. That’s only 1 total difference from Jan’14 to Dec ’14 (moving from P1 to P3) even though there were 2 moves.

5. Next steps?
Possible future explorations here:

  1. Refine the difference function. Is there an ideal difference function?
  2. Rrepeat with more data
  3. This was for Washington state. Compare to other states.
  4. Compare the vrdb decay rate in urban vs. rural counties.
  5. Analyze the empirical data and correlate it with specific events. For example, why was their a decrease in voter registration records in Mar’14.
  6. Develop a theoretical model and match to the empirical data here.

Analytics Blog Entry Contest with a Cash Prize

Voter-Science is hosting a contest with a $500 cash prize! The winner will be announced at the TechRoanoke conference on May 14th. You can register for the conference here.

The challenge is to write a blog entry demonstrating data, statistics, and analytics as applied to the campaign or political sphere. Possible ideas:

  • Propose an algorithm for rating the quality of predictions on party id.
  • Show statistically which is easier: winning a single statewide race or winning the majority of legislative seats?
  • Show a unique visualization that makes an argument on a pertinent issue.
  • See an example of showing voter database decay rate.

Articles will be judged by Voter-Science and appear on the voter-science blog. Criteria include a) technical rigor, b) innovation and relevance, c) general blog quality.

1st place prize is $500 in cash. 2nd place is $250.
Feel free to ask Info@Voter-Science.com for any clarifications.

Entries must be submitted to Info@Voter-Science.com by May 12 8am PST.

Success in the Age of Populist Politics

Welcome to the age of populist politics. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have upended traditional politics on both ends of the political spectrum.
Love him or hate him, the conservative establishment has ignored the Trump phenomenon at their own peril. For months, we’ve heard how Trump was going to self-immolate at any moment. How his supporters are crazy bitter clingers. How Trump wasn’t a serious candidate. Now he’s the Republican front runner.

In the Democratic camp, the political party bosses have done everything to put out the flames of the Bernie Sanders revolution in favor of the establishment pick: Hillary Clinton. However, her numerous problems ranging from Benghazi to email servers has disenfranchised many in the traditional Democrat voting base. At Republican caucus locations across Washington, there were even reports of Democrat defectors attending to switch to the Republican party.

The political landscape is shifting out from underneath the traditional political order. A populist revolt is afoot in our great nation that will re-write the rules of politics. Zibignew Bryzenski is on the record stating that the world has never been more politically awake and engaged than it is now. Voters are engaged, angry, and ready for change that goes beyond the normal “throw the bums out”. The old order has been turned on its ear, and the old rules no longer apply.

The mantra, “Know your voter”, has never been more apt.

Voter Science was formed to help candidates and activist groups navigate the stormy seas of electoral politics. The upending of traditional politics heralds an age of opportunity for those able to seize upon it. Those who win in this new environment will be those who best understand and connect with the needs of the electorate and make effective use of data, tech, and analytics.

In order to be successful, hear are some things to consider:

  • Be relevant to connect with the voter: the same old tired talking points are not going to cut it anymore.
  • Drop the clipboard and go mobile: use electronic means to capture data while canvassing or phone banking
  • Own your brand: some Presidential candidates failed to lock down their own internet domain names (e.g. Donald Trump’s takeover of http://www.JebBush.com). Be sure to claim your name in cyberspace before your opponent does.
  • Be smart and use data: use data to micro-target voters and focus your campaign’s efforts
  • Be willing to risk in order to learn: A/B testing is at the heart of email and direct marketing. Constantly test and refine your messaging and your reach throughout the campaign cycle.