Here are some key takeaways from the Washington State 2020 presidential primary yesterday.
Voters were required to mark a party on their ballot and then Democrats could vote for the Democrat nominee (a race down to Biden vs. Bernie) while Republicans could vote for the Republican Nominee (Trump).
While everyone’s specific vote (ie, Biden vs. Bernie) is private, the list of who voted and their party preference on the ballot is public (Democrat vs. Republican) and maintained by the Secretary of State.
As our snapshot last night (midnight at Mar 10th) , there were 1.8 million ballots received (about 37% of the total voters) with the following split:
[Source: Secretary of State March 10th Election Results.]
We expect the absolute numbers to change as more ballots are received in the mail; but the percentages and trends will likely stay similar.
96% of voters successfully marked a party preference. Leading up to Tuesday, there was some controversy about the need to mark a party preference, but in practice, the overwhelming majority complied.
Leveraging a party score database
Voter-Science maintains a Party Identification database that associates each voter with a Party ID score. This database is used by hundreds of candidates across the state and has frequently predicted elections to 99%+ accuracy. (contact firstname.lastname@example.org to learn more about our database).
We can then join the ballot results with the party scores to gain additional insights. Here’s the pivot showing both party score (rows) and ballot marking (columns).
Voter-Science has a party score for over 90% of the voters.
- A “hard” voter is that party’s base and likely to vote straight party line.
- A “soft” voter likely identifies with a party but is still considered persuadable.
- The “Unknown” row is people that VS doesn’t yet have a party score for.
For example, this reads that 1.1 million ballots were marked Democrats, and of that 544k of those voters have voter-science party score of “soft democrat”. The boxes inline show the cross over votes.
Independents went 67.3% : 32.7% for a Democrat ballot over a Republican one. That could spell trouble for Republicans in November, or it may be because the Democrats still had an interesting choice on their ballot whereas Republicans just could vote for Trump.
What about cross-over voting?
Dedicated party voters stuck with their party ballot. Only 27k GOP and 10k democrats did cross over and vote on the other ballot. The 10k democrat voters may seem significant, but that’s only 0.58% of the total votes – a small enough number to be attribute to voter error in filling out their ballot. This won’t be an issue in November once there’s just a single general ballot.
But, there’s interesting cross-over from Soft Dem/GOP:
76k soft democrats (8.3% of total Dems) voted on an uncontested GOP ballot to support Trump. That’s 5% of the total vote, which could be an interesting sector if Republicans can identify and leverage them in November.
20.3% of total GOP voters crossed over to vote on the democrat ballot. That could be because the GOP ballot has just Trump, so these GOP may have weighed in on the more interesting Bernie/Biden debate.
- 96% of voters successfully marked a party preference
- Independents went 67.3% : 32.7% for a marked a Democrat ballot over a Republican one
- 20.3% of total soft GOP voters crossed over to vote on the democrat ballot. Only 8% of total soft Democrats