Case Study: Handling the MN GOP Convention

This article is a technical case-study for how Voter-Science’s services handled a high-traffic event: the Minnesota GOP State Convention on May 30th.  The MNGOP was clear that it was absolutely critical for the site to keep up with the surge in traffic and stay fully responsive during their event. The event was successful. There were surge periods hitting over 1000 requests/second to our servers, and the servers averaged responses in under 100ms.

Here were the engineering steps we took to provide the MNGOP that guarantee…

Continue reading “Case Study: Handling the MN GOP Convention”

A candidate’s first task: creating an online petition

As a new candidate, a great first task is to create an free online petition at https://PetitionBuilder.org and share it out.

An online petition lets you pick a topic and people can sign up with their name, zip code and email address. They can also leave comments and upvote on other comments – which is empowering to the signers.

An online petition is an opportunity to test the waters in March, not at the August primary.  Specifically:

  1. Pick a meaningful topic – Avoid frustrated partisan rhetoric that only appeals to the base. Choose something that resonate with their community and motivates voters.
  2. Get community feedback – If nobody signs your petition, it gives you a pulse that perhaps the topic is not broadly important and you should focus elsewhere. Signers can also leave comments and upvote on a petition, so that’s another signal you can use.
  3. Exercise your influencer network –To really get traction, you’re going to have to do more than just share it once on Facebook. Roll up your sleeves and go to community meetings, meet with other people, and be seen as a leader on the topic in the community. This is hard work, but all essential skills you will need on the campaign to get votes.

The bottom line is if you can’t even get 100 signatures on a petition, you certainly won’t get 10,000 votes in August!  For many, running an online petition is a great wakeup call – but early enough that they can do something about it.

 

Now what?

As you get your signatures, you can monitor the statistics page to see things like view rates, signup rates, share rates. You can even see a heat map of where the signups are coming from.

petition-stats

Some practical next steps after you get signatures:

  • Use screen shots from the stats pages to make followup posts promoting the petition.
  • Update your petition’s description with new information.
  • Use the stats to identify the biggest influences
  • Contact petition signers with followup messages and action items. You can import the signers into your own mail list or contact them via PetitionBuilder.
  • Match your signers back to the voter-database to determine other attributes such as legislative district, party score, voting history, or other demographics. Voter-Science can help with this.

 

Easy integration between your CRM and VS Canvasser

Voter-Science provides a free door-to-door canvassing app, and you can bring your own data and get started immediately at https://Start.Voter-Science.com

But for Developers, there’s also VoterScience API access that lets you can quickly add canvassing support to your existing app.

This is ideal for apps, such as CRMs or outreach platforms, that have a list of names. You can call an API to create a new canvassing sheet with those names, and then receive a webhook as the canvassing results are filled out. The general flow here would be:

  1. In your CRM app, add a button like “Export to Walklist” which takes a list from your app and passes it to the VS API. You’ll also specify a webhook to receive results and which users are allowed to access this sheet. Your app is then in full control of list management.
  2. Users can then open the walklist on the VS Canvasser app. They will log in via their email and are matched against permissions  you provided in the first step.
  3. As users fill in canvassing results, VS will fire the webhook you provided in the first API call.
  4. Your app listens on a webhook and fills in results in your system. This could be adding tags, filling in fields, etc.

See https://github.com/Voter-Science/TrcLibNpm/wiki/Create-New-Sheets  for API usage.

A few additional notes:

  • This can also be used to integrate with an existing CRM. For example, we use this APIs to integrate between VS Canvasser and NationBuilder.
  • Users for the canvassing can be separate from your CRM users. For example, you may have a few staff members that can access your CRM, but a totally separate field team for running canvassing.
  • The VoterScience system also has a powerful data mashup engine that can merge in additional data sets or even provide geocoding.

So stop writing your own canvass apps and focus on more interesting problems!

3 takeaways from WA Presidential Primary

Here are some key takeaways from the Washington State 2020 presidential primary yesterday.

Background

Voters were required to mark a party on their ballot and then Democrats could vote for the Democrat nominee (a race down to Biden vs. Bernie) while Republicans could vote for the Republican Nominee (Trump).

While everyone’s specific vote (ie, Biden vs. Bernie) is private, the list of who voted and their party preference on the ballot is public (Democrat vs. Republican) and maintained by the Secretary of State.

Results

As our snapshot last night (midnight at Mar 10th) , there were 1.8 million ballots received (about 37% of the total voters) with the following split:

WaPresPrimaryResults

[Source: Secretary of State March 10th Election Results.]

We expect the absolute numbers to change as more ballots are received in the mail; but the percentages and trends will likely stay similar.

96% of voters successfully marked a party preference. Leading up to Tuesday, there was some controversy about the need to mark a party preference, but in practice, the overwhelming majority complied.

Leveraging a party score database

Voter-Science maintains a Party Identification database that associates each voter with a Party ID score.  This database is used by hundreds of candidates across the state and has frequently predicted elections to 99%+ accuracy. (contact info@voter-science.com to learn more about our database).

We can then join the ballot results with the party scores to gain additional insights. Here’s the pivot showing both party score (rows) and ballot marking (columns).

WaPresPrimaryResultsByPartyScore

Voter-Science has a party score for over 90% of the voters.

  • A “hard” voter is that party’s base and likely to vote straight party line.
  • A “soft” voter likely identifies with a party but is still considered persuadable.
  • The “Unknown” row is people that VS doesn’t yet have a party score for.

For example, this reads that 1.1 million ballots were marked Democrats, and of that 544k of those voters have voter-science party score of “soft democrat”.  The boxes inline show the cross over votes.

Independents went 67.3% : 32.7%  for a Democrat ballot over a Republican one.  That could spell trouble for Republicans in November, or it may be because the Democrats still had an interesting choice on their ballot whereas Republicans just could vote for Trump.

 

What about cross-over voting?

Dedicated party voters stuck with their party ballot. Only 27k GOP and 10k democrats did cross over and vote on the other ballot.  The 10k democrat voters may seem significant, but that’s only 0.58% of the total votes – a small enough number to be attribute to voter error in filling out their ballot. This won’t be an issue in November once there’s just a single general ballot.

But, there’s interesting cross-over from Soft Dem/GOP:

76k soft democrats (8.3% of total Dems) voted on an uncontested GOP ballot to support Trump. That’s 5% of the total vote, which could be an interesting sector if Republicans can identify and leverage them in November.

20.3% of total GOP voters crossed over to vote on the democrat ballot. That could be because the GOP ballot has just Trump, so these GOP may have weighed in on the more interesting Bernie/Biden debate.

 

Summary

  • 96% of voters successfully marked a party preference
  • Independents went 67.3% : 32.7%  for a marked a Democrat ballot over a Republican one
  • 20.3% of total soft GOP voters crossed over to vote on the democrat ballot. Only 8% of total soft Democrats

Canvassing With Gestures

While the use of obscene gestures as part of any campaign communications strategy is to be discouraged, some gestures can be an intuitive and efficient means of data entry on mobile devices.  So as we knock on doors, anything that helps us shift focus from our phones to our neighbors not only saves time and effort, but also promotes a more positive image in our communities.

Canvasser has always supported the swipe gesture to proceed to the next household or household member, but with the release last week of v1.6 for both Android and iOS, we’ve introduced support for a powerful new gesture: Shake.

To enable this feature, simply open up Settings from the main menu.  The new Gestures section adds two new settings:

Screenshot_1563306118

The first setting assigns an action to be initiated when a shake gesture is detected.  This is disabled by default, but by tapping the control you can pick the option you’d like automatically entered into the Result field when your phone is shaken.  For canvassing, that’s usually “No contact” or “Left literature”, but “No answer” might be more appropriate if you’re on the phone working through a call list to remind people to vote.

The second setting is to provide audible feedback when an action is triggered by gesture, which is done using the built-in text-to-speech capabilities of your phone.  By default, this is enabled so that when you shake your phone you’ll immediately hear spoken feedback (e.g. “Left literature”) to indicate that the gesture was detected and Result field automatically filled.  You can then simply swipe to move on to the next household.

Note that the volume of the audible feedback will be subject to both the global and app-specific volume settings on your phone.  For more details on how to set these, click here for Android and here for iOS.

Shake gesture support will primarily be used from the household detail page, but with the v1.6.1 release we’ve added support for the voter detail page as well.

Of course, we’re just getting started with introducing more intuitive gestures to use with Canvasser that will help speed data entry when you’re out knocking on doors.  Personally, I’ve knocked on over 30,000 doors during my two last campaigns and so I have some opinions on what improves my efficiency, but I’m always anxious to hear more suggestions from the field.  If you have an idea for the next kick-ass new feature for Canvasser, please let me know at chad@voter-science.com.