WA Voting Turnout Statistics

In WA state, voter turnout is at 52% [As 11/7/16].  A further breakdown shows Democrats are enjoying significant turnout advantage: Seattle turnout is at 58% whereas Yakima County turnout is 43%. Seattle is a traditional litmus test  for Democrat turnout, whereas Yakima County is a traditional litmus test for Republican turnout, especially in eastern Washington.

Low GOP turnout in eastern WA was a large factor in Rob McKenna’s 2012 loss. The above data is from the Secretary of State and County auditors. We can draw additional insights by join that with party identification scores [1].

 

Voter turnout among independents is  lower than average at 36%, but higher than average for devoted party supporters.   This is consistent with conventional wisdom that passion drives turnout: Devoted party voters are more motivated to vote than independents.

voterturnout

Among “hard” party supporters, GOP turnout is lower than Democrat turnout by about 110,000 votes.

However, there are over 600,000 Republicans that have not yet voted.  The data indicates the Republican voters are there, they’re just staying home.  The Bryant campaign recently release a poll showing that Bryant has a 7% lead among people that haven’t yet voted.

Voter-Science identifies about 85% of the voters as leaning either GOP or Democrat.  Given current turnout the generic ballot results are 37% Republican,  47% Democrat, 9% Independent.  Although Republican governors frequently draw strong democrat support and outperform the generic ballot by almost 10% .  For example,  in 2012 the Republicans where 15% behind on the presidential ballot, but only  3% behind in the governor’s race.

The bottom line is that the Republican turnout is perilously low. If Republicans don’t get out and vote today, it’s going to be another blue wave over Washington.

Polls close at 8pm today. See the Secretary of State’s list of ballot dropbox locations.

[1] While the SOS tracks who voted, the individual vote is private and there is is no ‘official’ source of party id in WA state. Each campaign and organization comes up with their own best guess of individual party scores. Scores here are from Voter-Science.

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